Indian Stock Market Blog

According to a report released recently by brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher, Eastern Silk reported third quarter results, which were slightly better than expectations while its revenues grew by 5.3% yoy and 7.3% qoq to Rs 1,251m, profits grew at a much faster pace by 68.2% yoy and 13.8% qoq to Rs 184m. Topline growth appears muted due to the appreciating rupee.

The report further added that, at the CMP stock is trading at 9.4x FY07E and 6.7x FY08E EPS estimates of Rs 34.7 and Rs 49.1 respectively. Its competitor Himatsingka Seide is trading at 23.2x and 13.8x consensus EPS estimates of Rs 6.0 and Rs.10.0 respectively, when compared Eastern Silk appears to be significantly undervalued. We maintain buy recommendation on the stock.

Prabhudas Lilladher recommends a buy on K S Oils at the current price.

At the current market price, the stock is quoting at 7.9x FY08E and 6.3x FY09E initial EPS estimates which appear attractive as compared to Ruchi Soya, which is trading at about 9.6x FY08E earnings.

The report further added that, K S Oil is expected to grow revenues from Rs.6bn in FY06 to roughly Rs.11bn in FY07 and Rs.17bn in FY08 and thereafter grow by 25-30% YoY. EBITDA margins are also expected to rise from about 4.8% to about 8.5% over the same period due to increased sales of branded retail products. Profits are expected to rise nearly three times to Rs.500m in FY07 and further to Rs.1bn by FY09.

SKP Research recommends a “Buy” on McNally Bharat Engineering Company Ltd at a price of Rs 146.25 with a target price of Rs 210. The stock trades at 10.3 times and 6.8 times its FY08 and FY09 expected earnings respectively.

The EV/EBITDA ratios for FY07 and FY08 are 12.37 and 6.93 times. McNally Bharat, which has interests in the areas of bulk material handling, ash handling, coal and mineral benefaction, water management, port handling, road construction and related activities, has a strong order position of Rs 680 crore to be executed over the next 18 months period apart from orders worth Rs 1916 crore under consideration.

The different areas of operations help the company to diversify the portfolio of projects and reduce the risk of concentration into a particular field. Large investments in the infrastructure sector over the next decade provides a promising fundamental base for the company’s growth.

ONGC

Motilal Oswal recommends a “Buy” on ONGC at a price of Rs 877 with a target price of Rs 967. The stock is valued at over 9.9 times and 10.7 times its expected FY07 and FY08 earnings.

The corresponding EV/EBITDA ratio is 4.8 times each for its estimated FY07 and FY08 earnings. The company’s recent discoveries in the KG basin, the increase in production by approximately 70 per cent for gas and about 33 per cent for oil at the Panna-Mukta-Tapti consortium and the growth emanating from its 30 per cent stake in Cairn Energy’s Rajasthan block are the rationale for the invesment in the company.

Meanwhile its its 100 per cent subsidiary, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), is expected to record a 43 per cent CAGR in net profit during FY07-09, raising its share in ONGC’s consolidated profits from 5.6 per cent in FY06 to 16.3 per cent by FY09.

Large reserve accretions from about five global discoveries are expected to be declared in the next 12 to 30 months by OVL along with commencement of operations at Sakhalin and Sudan in the near term.

Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd

FINQUEST recommends a “Buy” on Kewal Kiran Clothing (KKCL) at a price Rs 217 with a target price of Rs 278. The stock trades at 12.7 and 9.8 times its estimated FY07 and FY08 earnings respectively.

FINQUEST expects Kewal Kiran’s bottomline to witness a CAGR of 53 per cent FY2006-FY2008E. The company, which is a significant player in the men apparel’s segment with brands like “Killer”, “Lawman”, “Easies” and “Integriti” plans to tap the branded women and kids wear segment as a de-risking strategy.

It is also doubling its apparel manufacturing capacity from 2 mn pieces to 4 mn pieces with an investment of Rs 67 crore. In addition to expansion of its present distribution reach, Kewal Kiran is adding a new distribution channel comprising of ‘K lounge’ stores.

KKCL is well positioned to capture the opportunity in the domestic apparel market thanks to healthy growth of organised retail and the textile and apparel segment.

RPG Transmission

Emkay – Private Client Research recommends a “Buy” on RPG Transmission at a price of Rs 196 with a revised target price of Rs 223 from the earlier Rs 205. The stock trades at 8.7 times its estimated FY08 earnings.

RPG Transmission has secured two orders worth Rs 193 crore from Power Grid Corporation of India to be completed by FY09 taking its order book position at a healthy Rs 450 crore. These orders reaffirm RPG transmission’s ability to undertake large-scale EPC projects in power transmission segment.

Emkay expects at least 30-35 per cent execution of the revenue to be booked in FY08E and margins to improve by 30-50 basis points. This trend is expected to continue with the company participating in all the big size high margin T&D projects.

YEAR OF THE BULL

Milind Karandikar
Neowave Analyst

2006 was a good year for stock market investors, with key indices shattering several psychological barriers. Will 2007 be similar? In this article, The Smart Investor gets four technical analysts to predict what the markets will do this year.

While one of them is a gung-ho bull, the other three advise investors to tread cautiously. In terms of stocks, there seems to be a bias towards mid- and small-caps, and sectors that have not participated in the rally last year.

In my previous article in The Smart Investor dated October 23, 2006, I had mentioned that many investors were experiencing a fear of heights in the current bull run in the Indian stock markets. That same nervousness continues to prevail with the markets scaling new peaks.

This indicates that our markets are nowhere close to any major top. Those who have missed the boat have been expecting a sharp correction since long. But the market is supreme and doesn’t listen to anybody’s wishes. It is time to come out of this wishful thinking and look for new buying opportunities in this strong bull market.

In this article, I am presenting an alternate possible pattern developing in the position of X-wave mentioned in my last article. Earlier I was interpreting the X-wave to be a diametric formation carrying seven legs. The swift price action that was expected in last two months has not materialised and forced me to look for a different interpretation.

The BSE Sensex monthly and weekly charts show this entire rally from May 2003 to be zigzag that has three legs (a), (b) and (c). Wave (c) has subdivided into five parts labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. We are probably in the last part ie wave 5 of wave (c). Since waves 2 and 4 are overlapping, wave (c) has to be interpreted as a terminal impulse pattern within which wave 5 will be the longest wave.

According to Neowave theory, this wave 5 will usually cover 100 per cent to 161.8 per cent of the price action of waves 1 and 3 combined. On a logarithmic scale this calculation sets a target of 20,000-plus for the Sensex. And that could happen in the year 2007 itself.

The most optimistic forecasts by many analysts, for the year 2007, are not exceeding 16000. But that is what Neowave theory is all about. The predictions are based on certain rules and not on my personal desire.

Of course, the future course of the markets would resolve the validity of my pattern interpretation. But if it is right, then there is a great buying opportunity even today.

Many stocks in the small and mid-cap segments seem to be in a huge accumulation phase and are likely to give an upward break-out. Once such breakouts are confirmed one can buy these stocks on declines that follow the swift rallies and hold for at least 8-12 months.

Those who cannot overcome the general feeling of nervousness would miss a lifetime investment opportunity that year 2007 presents. My advice to small investors is to overcome this fear of heights and invest. They should take this opportunity; else the other wise men will take it away.

BE CONSERVATIVE

Mukul Pal
CEO, Or-phe-us Capitals

The Indian economic cycle is heading to the late expansion stage. Theoretically, there are five stages viz. early expansion, middle expansion, late expansion, early contraction and late contraction.

The very fact that we are heading to the late expansion stage suggests that we are still away from a top and 2007 might see a new high above Sensex 14,000 points before the real slowdown starts.

We at Or-phe-us still see the immediate preferred direction sideways to down with a potential upward break-out probably after the March 2007 quarter. We had highlighted broad market divergence in November 2006, which still stand firm.

Barring Sensex, BSE Bankex, CNX IT and BSE Capital Goods Index, and the other indices (Healthcare, Small-Cap, Mid-Cap, BSE Oil, BSE FMCG, BSE PSU, BSE Auto) are still below May 2006 lows.

Historically, such divergences do not guarantee that markets may turn down or remain sideways, but if you look at it from the inter-market perspectives and add in a few technical aspects, we have enough reasons to validate our case.

The capital goods sector has exhibited a clear leadership since 2004 with average returns over the last three years near 80 per cent. This was the only sector to churn up more than 100 per cent ever in a year.

Capital goods, representing the industrial sector growth, marks the best run of the economic cycle. Materials and energy sector should assume leadership from current levels. And the effects should be visible starting this month.

Materials and energy: Though we are still negative on zinc and other base metals on the intermediate term, the materials sector (chemicals, construction materials, glass, paper, forest products, metals) is a mixed bag, and steel and aluminium still seem to have upside left. Integrated aluminium companies are still trended up.

On the energy front, we do not see oil falling substantially below $50. After oil hits a base, the respective sectors should assume leadership. Till then we can see some negativity in both the energy and materials sector. Energy is also a late expansion sector and seems in sync with our preferred wave count on market.

BSE Bankex was the next best performing index after capital goods sector. Credit expansion is the highest in late expansion stage.

This boosts banking profitability on one side and makes banking sector very vulnerable to corrections. We are near our price targets on the sector and sector components and recommend pre-Budget reductions on the sector.

Technology: Despite the noise that Indian tech companies generate abroad, the sector has under-performed every other sector in 2006. This under-performance should continue.

Technology is in a middle expansion sector and does not do well in late expansion sectors (current). We still believe the technology sector prices should correct sizeably from current levels. We will not be surprised if technology gives negative returns in 2007.

The automobile sector should see negative surprises. The index and its constituent stocks should decline further from here. This push and pull of various sectors should result in sideways to net negative movement till the first quarter of 2007.

Banks and technology alone cannot sustain the markets at current levels. And with the capital goods story being more than three years old, we need smart sector allocations as we head into late expansion. Energy and materials should start ticking from this quarter. Let’s be conservative in 2007.

CORRECTION AFTER THE MARCH QUARTER

Devangshu Datta
Technical Analyst

Since April 2003, the Nifty has climbed some 324 per cent. Despite several corrections, and the sheer unlikely length of the bull run, the upwards trend has got even steeper since April 2005.

By definition, any long-term bull run should lead to new record highs. But the Indian market has never before seen a rally of this length or recorded this type of sequence of successive highs for months on end. By definition, there’s been a paradigm shift in the market–this mirrors a broader situation where GDP growth has been excellent for a four-year period.

Can this bull market last through 2007 or is it time for a big correction? Well, since May 2005, the Nifty has risen along a steep 50 degree trendline (monthly charts). Volumes have been good and other breadth signals have not been particularly negative. At first glance, there’s no reason why the bull run cannot continue indefinitely.

There are some signs of a possible market top. Despite generating good volumes, the Nifty hasn’t been able to break decisively past the 4000-point level. There’s a very strong resistance above 4000.

Momentum signals such as the RoC have been weak for several months now–that’s a negative divergence. Intra-day volatility has also been low–this is usually a sign of a nearing top. Advances have frequently been outnumbered by declines–another warning signal.

Nevertheless, one of the oldest rules of technical analysis is not to bet against an existing trend until and unless the price line confirms indicator divergences.

It’s perfectly possible for a price line to continue rising even if there are negative divergences. We cannot trade in the hope of a correction until such time as the price line reacts and confirms divergence.

I do think that a major correction sometime in 2007 is extremely likely. We may see a repeat of the situation that occurred in May-July 2006. The market dropped by 30 per cent before it made a recovery. If such a deep correction occurs, it will have one of the following potential fundamental triggers:

Interest rates are getting tighter – that automatically makes a correction more likely. Another rate hike in the next RBI review could trigger a sell-off.
The Budget could fail to satisfy the market which is, as usual, making miraculously optimistic consensus estimates about reform possibilities.
There may be some global event that adversely impacts all stock markets and leads to an FII pull-out. (The foreigners have been strong buyers in the first week of 2007).
The current highly optimistic earnings estimates for 2006-07 and 2007-08 may not be met if there’s even a minor dip in economic demand

In technical terms, there are three possibilities – the obvious one is that market will continue to run up.

This would involve breaking the Nifty 4000 resistance and continuing to ascend along the steep trend line that is being maintained (this is incidentally nearly coincident with the 10 month/200-day moving average on monthly and daily time frames respectively). We do have target projections in the range of 4150-4200 on the chart patterns and these could be exceeded if the market crosses 4000 with volume expansion.

The second possibility is that the 4000 resistance will hold. But the market will find support somewhere around 3600 and proceed to range-trade through most of 2007 between say, the range of 3600-4100.

The third possibility is a large collapse, which will drive the market down below the 3000 mark. Even then, the overall trend would be reckoned positive unless the lows of June 2006 (2600-levels) were broken. The market has successive support levels at 3750, 3600 and 3500 in case of serious corrections.

Short-term traders should watch the 10-DMA closely. The first danger signal of a short-term correction will be the piercing of this support line.

They should also watch for situations where the put-call ratio of open interest in the near-term Nifty drops below 1.1 or rises above 2. Below 1.1, it is very likely to signal an overbought market while ratios of above 2 are also very likely to be unsustainable. The third signal to watch for is a time-period where the domestic mutual funds and the FIIs simultaneously turn sellers.

My prognosis would be that volumes are very likely to expand until the Budget is announced. That in turn, means that the intermediate trend would stay positive until late February. If the Budget is acceptable, that would be great. I would expect a correction, and a deep one at that sometime in 2007. But it’s not likely to occur until March and maybe even later.

WHERE TO INVEST AND WHEN?

Rajat K Bose
Technical Analyst

Are we headed for another year of stellar performance by the equity markets? But isn’t valuation a point of concern? What if interest rates spike further? If the global economy were to show some signs of cooling off then how would our market fare? These are some of the questions that keep haunting the minds of Indian investors now.

However, the moot question is where to put our money and when. Before we move in to specifics of sectors that look attractive, let’s put things in perspective so that we can come up with some low risk ideas.

This current bull run is already nearly four years old. Getting popular large-cap stocks at cheap valuations is a tall order. We should rather look forward to the broader universe of mid- and small-cap stocks and any sector that has so far been overlooked.

To answer the timing part, we need to take a cue from past instances. Since the early 1990s we have seen that except 1991 there hasn’t been a single year when the market moved up throughout the year.

Our market, as represented by the major indices, has gone up in the initial months of any year when the second half of the previous year has seen some sustained correction.

For the early months to show a good upswing, generally the market would have gone through a significant corrective swing in the last quarter or for most part of the second half of the previous year.

On the other hand, if the market showed a heady upswing lasting for several months starting any time between May and July we observe marked volatility and a protracted downswing during the first quarter of the very next year.

While our data, in this case, is limited to the last sixteen years beginning 1991, is not really a statistically significant population, it does throw some pointers. Going by this trend, we are likely to see a lot of volatility and a probable downward bias during the first three or four months of 2007. This seems highly probable given the meteoric rise of our market in the last six months or so, after the sharp downswing in the middle of 2006.

The scenario may not pan out only if the current surge of liquidity continues just as it has for last several months. However, it seems somewhat unlikely that the deluge of liquidity is going to continue if the allocations to India by some prominent global investors are any indication.

Thus, if the above scenario really gets repeated this time around, we might get better opportunities to invest a few months later.

One thing needs to be mentioned here, while the market participants may be obsessed with the Union Budget, it has not produced any lasting upswing except for 1991. Even the “pathbreaking” 1997 Budget saw market peaking out in less than a week’s time after its publication. Normally, Budget causes a lot of volatility rather than any sustained directional swings.

Any study done on the basis of the major indices of our market is likely to miss out some reality on the broader universe of stocks. While bull and bear swings in large-cap popular stocks continue to happen periodically with some cyclical regularity; the mid- and small-cap universe does not exactly replicate the same behaviour.

When the surge happens in them, in any particular year, they tend to show parabolic upswings only to taper off equally sharply ending in a stupor that may last for anything between two to four years.

For instance, the broad market upswing in mid- and small-caps came to an end in October 2005. This reality is corroborated by the large multitude of investors but may not be so apparent when you look at the so called mid- and small-cap indices.

Another feature of our current bull market is to take on fancy for different sectors and/or industries in different years. We initially saw a craze for retail stocks in 2003-04 while the next year it was the surge in commodities and capital goods stocks, which shifted to realty and construction last year. Expecting an encore would most likely lead to disappointments.

Thus, it makes sense to look at stocks belonging to sectors that have not been fancied like consumer durables, pharmaceuticals, paper, energy-related sectors (except power equipment manufacturers).

Most of the stocks belonging to these sectors are either at the bottom or have been range-bound for a considerably long length of time. Some of them are really good businesses with good earnings potential.

Some of these stocks are also showing accumulation signs over the last few months. These stocks could probably turn out to be low-risk decent-return bets for 2007. However, they may test your patience before they produce any good gains for you.

If Credit Suisse is to be believed, the Elephant (or should we say Tiger?) will soon overtake the Dragon as the world’s fastest-growing major economy on rising consumer and government spending.

We don’t know though if that’s going to make any difference to our 350 million poor, but the Chinese are definitely taking notice. Mao’s The Little Red Book and revolutionary ideals seem to have been overtaken by `How to Make a Million $’ and expansionist zeal.

During the recent international film festival in Goa, the lone Chinese delegate Chi (`Call me Jack’) He (pronounced Hay) wanted to know why Indians communicated in English, how rural India lived, how we knew Arunachal was ours and so on and so forth.

After answering his queries as best as one could, I in turn asked him why the Chinese were learning English, and flooding the world with cheap (disposable) products.

Over the past few weeks, the country has received a couple of large trade delegations from mainland China, not to speak of a lively 36-member delegation (not counting the wives) from Taiwan led by the affable Lin Chin-Chao, Chairman, Taiwan Importers & Exporters Chamber of Commerce. The Taiwan delegation comprised CEOs of leading companies representing sectors like lumber, carbon steel, electronic components, ozone power supply, PVC plastic raw material, furniture, Chinese bean, coal, gypsum, iron slag, bauxite, agricultural chemicals, fertiliser, aluminium electrolytic capacitors, semiconductors, raw cotton/ blended yarn, marble, hardware and health food.

The All India Association of Industries, the Indian Merchants Chamber and the Guandong Sub-Council of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade have signed MoUs on the sidelines of the fourth China Products Exhibition organised by AIAI to enhance trade links.

Enter the delegates

More than 170 delegates and 150 companies from various provinces of Mainland China showcased their products across 40 categories. This government-backed exhibition of Chinese products in India is believed to be a significant step towards consolidating bilateral economic relations in the `India-China Friendship Year’.

The event featured a diverse portfolio: adhesive products, agricultural machinery, building, construction, interiors, chemicals, cosmetics, diesel engines and generator sets, electrical products, embroidered sarees, food and beverages, furniture, gifts, health and hygiene products, home appliances, industrial goods, leather products, shoes, toys, handicrafts, pottery, porcelain ware, carpets, lighting products, massage bathtubs, microscopes, motorcycles, scooters, pearls, pharmaceuticals, plastic machinery, plastic, rubber and telecom products, pumps, sanitaryware, sports goods, stationery, textiles and garments.

Guandong Sub-council chairman Yang Guo-cai hoped the exhibition would enable Chinese entrepreneurs to explore the vast Indian market potential and facilitate mutually beneficial partnerships.

The huge Guandong delegation was followed by a modest (six-member) delegation from the Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Hebei Province, which spoke very little English. But that seems to have mattered little given that China has become the fourth largest US export market, and run up record trade surpluses with that country.

The Hebei delegates were accompanied by a translator from New Delhi, a young Sardar who spoke wondrously fluent Chinese after barely a year’s intensive study of the language at the University of Delhi. We are told that tremendous opportunities await Indian companies for close cooperation with Hebei in textile and construction machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and so on.

Telling numbers

Jianjun Liu, Secretary General, Hebei Enterprise Directors Association, had some interesting facts to share. First, bilateral trade reached $13.65 billion in January-July 2006, representing an increase of 26.8 per cent over the same period last year. Second, India registered a trade deficit of $1.24 billion during January-July 2006 against a trade surplus of $1.42 billion a year ago. The trade deficit was on account of a massive increase in India’s imports by 59.47 per cent to reach $7.45 billion during this period. India’s exports at $6.2 billion registered a marginal increase of 1.81 per cent.

The recent visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao seems to have pushed Sino-Indian relations to a new high. Clearly, the two countries have a historical opportunity to accelerate their development, given Hu’s five-point proposals for promoting bilateral trade. The first proposal is to promote trade diversification. Accordingly, India and China have set a goal of $40 billion bilateral trade by 2010.

Vijay Kalantri, President, AIAI says China is the second largest partner of India in the world. Over the years, AIAI has signed MoUs with not just the folks from Hebei and Guandong but also the Guangzhou Export Processing Zone, the China International Trust and Investment Corporation, the China Enterprise Management Association, Hong Kong Association of International Cooperation of Small and Medium Enterprises, the Yunnan Province Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau, and the Yunnan Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

Which brings us back to Chi (Jack) who said he’d like to see Indo-Chinese cinematic co-productions get off the ground. That sounds like chana in China to me, but since Mumbaikars have invented a heady dish called Chinese bhel, why not?

Normally analyst community and investors would talk about the PE at which the company will trade after equity dilution and the fundamentals when a company comes out with an IPO. But, I would rather like to talk about the company itself and keep the financials for the analyst to talk about.

Sobha Developers Ltd. (SDL) is a leading player in the residential and contractual projects having vast land reserves of approximately118 million sq. ft. The land reserves of the company are approximately amounting between Rs.39717 million to 43898 million (net of developers margins).The company primarily focuses on Southern Indian region for its business.

Source: Sobha Developers Limited.

The company specializes mainly in residential properties such as presidential suites, lands, villas, row houses, luxury and super luxury apartments including swimming pool, clubhouses and shopping complexes. On the contractual front the company has developed corporate block for Infosys Technologies and likes.

SDL is a one stop shop which provides not only development of property but has resources to provide services right from conceptualization to completion of the project.This has been possible due to its backward intergration model which includes architectural and design studios, concrete block making machines (imported from Germany), wood working and interior division, metal working and glazing factory, mechanical,electrical and plumbing division.

Skilled labour, trained tradesmen and qualified management and architectural team which works on scalable, modular and versatile project delivery model enables timely and cost efficient delivery of projects. And its German consultants and technologically advanced German tools ensure that the quality standards of the projects stay up to the mark. All processes and methodologies are documentated to create a standardized criteria for every project execution and completion.

Due to above mentioined reasons the company has been able to complete asthetically appealing architectural beauties from palaces in Oman to pyramidal and geodesic dome- shaped structures in Southern India.

The key strategies that the company would like to follow for its growth expansion are:

1. Geographical diversification of its projects.

2. Portfolio diversification

3. Maintain high standards of quality

4. Engage in more contractual projects.

5. Broaden its products offering by including retail products like furnishings and interiors.

Source Business Standard (India):

The number of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) crossed the 1,000 mark.

The total number of FIIs having their offices in India has now increased to 1,030. In the beginning of calendar year 2006, the figure was 813.

As many as 217 new FIIs opened their offices in India during the current calendar year. This is the highest number of registrations by FIIs in a year till date. The previous highest was 209 in 2005.
The net investments made by the institutions during 2006 was $9,185.90 million against $9,521.80 million in 2005.
In 1993, Pictet Umbrella Trust Emerging Markets’ Fund, an institutional investor from Switzerland, was the only FII to enter the Indian market.

While in 1994, no new registrations were reported,
Between 1995 and 2003, an average of 51 new FIIs opened their shops in the country each year.

The break up of FIIs in India is as follows:

US – 368

UK – 167

Luxembourg – 73

Singapore – 51

Australia – 35

Hong Kong – 35

Canada – 32

Ireland – 29

Netherlands – 27

Mauritius – 25

Switzerland – 22

France – 20

With the Indian economy looking strong in the coming years, I am sure the numbers will increase to look better.

Source The Hindu:

The real estate boom of 2006 is set to gain further momentum in 2007 to get India foreign capital of over Rs. 8,000 crore with leading international investors establishing their presence, providing employment opportunities for over two lakh skilled and unskilled people.

According to Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham), overseas real estate giants such as Royal Indian Raj International, Blackstone Group, Goldman Sachs, Emmar Properties, Pegasus Realty, Citigroup Property Investors, Lee Kim Tah Holdings, Salim group, Morgan Stanley and GE Commercial Finance are likely to bring in all capital of $8 billion with the opening up of India’s real estate sector to 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI).

Morgan Stanley has already forayed into India’s booming real estate sector in March 2006 through its real estate investment arm, Morgan Stanley Real Estate, investing Rs. 300 crore (around $68 million) in Mantri Developers Pvt Ltd. of Bangalore.

Morgan Stanley plans to invest more than $1 billion over the next four-five years in the Indian real estate sector.

Tishman Speyer of the U.S. tied up with ICICI Bank to invest $1 billion
Efficient regulatory framework and simpler tax regime for the sector are imperative to boost public-private participation and bring in managerial and technical expertise.

The biggest U.S. pension fund, CalPERS, hedge fund Farallon Capital Management, US-based developer Tishman Speyer and NRI fund Trikona Capital too have drawn up plans to invest in the booming market.

Domestic funds including Kotak Realty Fund, HDFC India Real Estate Fund, Pantaloon Retail’s Kshitij Real Estate Fund and UTI Venture Fund are also active.

With the rules relating to investment and repatriation relaxed to a large extent, an estimated 25 million non-resident Indians (NRIs) living in 125 countries, are investing in immovable property in India.
Strong economic growth, rising income levels, growing middle class, increasing urbanisation and improving transparency brought resurgence for the Indian real estate sector in 2006 which will continue to grow further in 2007 with easy availability of financing facilities.

The chamber forecasts that investment in real estate will go up from $12 billion in 2005 to $90 billion by 2015.

Greater integration with the global economy and the increase in domestic as well as foreign investments are encouraging demand for real estate. Despite ill-founded doubts of a bubble, foreign investors are lining up, it observed.

With ever increasing prices of Indian real estate, no better day than today to get hold of a property. The era is very similar to that of mid-90s. It is a builders market again. So if one is looking for a reasonably priced property, chances are it will get even more expensive tomorrow.

Here is the list of army operations carried out by the USA since the WW2 till afghanistan war…. a long list…. so who is the greater evil by the way ???

( list is in german, but you can make out the dates and the places invaded )

Korea-Krieg: 27. Juni 1950 bis 27. Juli 1953
Suez-Krise: Ägypten, 26. Juli 1956 bis 15. November 1956
Operation “Blue Bat”: Libanon, 15. Juli 1958 bis 20. Oktober 1958
Taiwan-Straße: 23. August 1958 bis 1. Juni 1963
Kongo: 14. Juli 1960 bis 1. September 1962
Operation “Tailwind”: Laos, 1970
Operation “Ivory Coast/Kingoin”: Nordvietnam, 21. November 1970
Operation “Endweep”: Nordvietnam, 27. Januar 1972 bis 27. Juli 1973
Operation “Linebacker I”: Nordvietnam, 10. Mai 1972 bis 23. Oktober 1972
Operation “Linebacker II”: Nordvietnam, 18. Dezember 1972 bis 29. Dezember 1972
Operation “Pocket Money”: Nordvietnam, 9. Mai 1972 bis 23. Oktober 1972
Operation “Freedom Train”: Nordvietnam, 6. April 1972 bis 10. Mai 1972
Operation “Arc Light”: Südostasien, 18. Juni 1965 bis April 1970
Operation “Rolling Thunder”: Südvietnam, 24. Februar 1965 bis Oktober 1968
Operation “Ranch Hand”: Südvietnam, Januar 1962 bis Januar 1971
Kuba-Krise: weltweit, 24. Oktober 1962 bis 1. Juni 1963
Operation “Powerpack”: Dominikanische Republik, 28. April 1965 bis 21. September 1966
Sechs-Tage-Krieg: Mittlerer Osten, 13. Mai 1967 bis 10. Juni 1967
Operation “Nickel Grass”: Mittlerer Osten, 6. Oktober 1973 bis 17. November 1973
Operation “Eagle Pull”: Kambodscha, 11. April 1975 bis 13. April 1975
Operation “Freequent Wind”: Evakuierung in Südvietnam, 26. April 1975
bis 30. April 1975
Operation “Mayaguez”: Kambodscha, 15. Mai 1975
Operationen “Eagle Claw/Desert One”: Iran, 25. April 1980
El Salvador, Nikaragua: 1. Januar 1981 bis 1. Februar 1992
Operation “Golf von Sidra”: Libyen, 18. August 1981
US-Multinational Force: Libanon, 25. August 1982 bis 11. Dezember 1987
Operation “Urgent Fury”: Grenada, 23. Oktober 1982 bis 21. November 1983
Operation “Attain Document”: Libyen, 26. Januar 1986 bis 29. März 1986
Operation “El Dorado Canyon”: Libyen, 12. April 1986 bis 17. April 1986
Operation “Blast Furnace”: Bolivien, Juli 1986 bis November 1986
Operation “Ernest Will”: Persischer Golf, 24. Juli 1987 bis 2. August 1990
Operation “Praying Mantis”: Persischer Golf, 17. April 1988 bis 19. April 1988
Operation “Just Cause”: Panama, 20. Dezember 1989 bis 31. Januar 1990
Operation “Nimrod Dancer”: Panama, Mai 1989 bis 20. Dezember 1989
Operation “Promote Liberty”: Panama, 31. Januar 1990
Operation “Ghost Zone”: Bolivien, März 1990 bis 1993
Operation “Sharp Edge”: Liberia, Mai 1990 bis 8. Januar 1991
Operation “Desert Farewell”: Südwest-Asien, 1. Januar 1992 bis 1992
Operation “Desert Calm”: “Südwest-Asien, 1. März 1991 bis 1. Januar 1992
Operation “Desert Shield”: 2. August 1990 bis 17. Januar 1991
Operation “Desert Storm”: Irak, 17. Januar 1991 bis 28. Februar 1991
Operation “Eastern Exit”: Somalia, 2. Januar 1991 bis 11. Januar 1991
Operation “Productiv Effort/Sea Angel”: Bangladesh, Mai 1991 bis Juni 1991
Operation “Fiery Vigil”: Philippinen, 1. bis 30. Juni 1991
Operation “Victor Squared”: Haiti, 1. bis 30. September 1991
Operation “Quick Lift”: Zaire, 24. September 1991 bis 7. Oktober 1991
Operation “Silver Anvil”: Sierra Leone, 2. Mai 1992 bis 5. Mai 1992
Operation “Distant Runner”: Ruanda, 9. April 1994 bis 15. April 1994
Operationen “Quiet Resolve”/”Support Hope”: Ruanda, 22. Juli 1994 bis 30. September 1994
Operation “Uphold/Restore Democracy”: Haiti, 19. September 1994 bis 31. März 1995
Operation “United Shield”: Somalia, 22. Januar 1995 bis 25. März 1995
Operation “Assured Response”: Liberia, April 1996 bis August 1996
Operation “Quick Response”: Zentralafrikanische Republik, Mai 1996 bis August 1996
Operation “Guardian Assistance”: Zaire/Ruanda/Uganda, 15. November 1996 bis 27. Dezember 1996
Operation “Pacific Haven/Quick Transit”: Irak – Guam, 15. September 1996 bis 16. Dezember 1996
Operation “Guardian Retrieval”: Kongo, März 1997 bis Juni 1997
Operation “Noble Obelisk”: Sierra Leone, Mai 1997 bis Juni 1997
Operation “Bevel Edge”: Kambodscha, Juli 1997
Operation “Noble Response”: Kenia, 21. Januar 1998 bis 25. März 1998
Operation “Shepherd Venture”: Guinea-Bissau, 10. Juni 1998 bis 17. Juni 1998
Operation “Infinite Reach”: Sudan/Afghanistan, 20. bis 30. August 1998
Operation “Golden Pheasant”: Honduras, ab März 1988
Operation “Safe Border”: Peru/Ekuador, ab 1995
Operation “Laser Strike”: Südafrika, ab 1. April 1996
Operation “Steady State”: Südamerika, 1994 bis April 1996
Operation “Support Justice”: Südamerika, 1991 bis 1994
Operation “Wipeout”: Hawaii, ab 1990
Operation “Coronet Oak”: Zentral- und Südamerika, Oktober 1977 bis 17. Februar 1999
Operation “Coronet Nighthawk”: Zentral- und Südamerika, ab 1991
Operation “Desert Falcon”: Saudi Arabien, ab 31. März 1991
Operation “Northern Watch”: Kurdistan, ab 31. Dezember 1996
Operation “Provide Comfort”: Kurdistan, 5. April 1991 bis Dezember 1994
Operation “Provide Comfort II”: Kurdistan, 24. Juli 1991 bis 31. Dezember 1996
Operation “Vigilant Sentine I”: Kuwait, ab August 1995
Operation “Vigilant Warrior”: Kuwait, Oktober 1994 bis November 1994
Operation “Desert Focus”: Saudi Arabien, ab Juli 1996
Operation “Phoenix Scorpion I”: Irak, ab November 1997
Operation “Phoenix Scorpion II”: Irak, ab Februar 1998
Operation “Phoenix Scorpion III”: Irak, ab November 1998
Operation “Phoenix Scorpion IV”: Irak, ab Dezember 1998
Operation “Desert Strike”: Irak, 3. September 1996; Cruise Missile-Angriffe: Irak, 26. Juni 1993, 17. Januar 1993, Bombardements: Irak, 13. Januar 1993
Operation “Desert Fox”: Irak, 16. Dezember 1998 bis 20. Dezember 1998
Operation “Provide Promise”: Bosnien, 3. Juli 1992 bis 31. März 1996
Operation “Decisive Enhancement”: Adria, 1. Dezember 1995 bis 19. Juni 1996
Operation “Sharp Guard”: Adria, 15. Juni 1993 bis Dezember 1995
Operation “Maritime Guard”: Adria, 22. November 1992 bis 15. Juni 1993
Operation “Maritime Monitor”: Adria, 16. Juli 1992 bis 22. November 1992
Operation “Sky Monitor”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, ab 16. Oktober 1992
Operation “Deliberate Forke”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, ab 20. Juni 1998
Operation “Decisive Edeavor/Decisive Edge”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, Januar 1996 bis Dezember 1996
Operation “Deny Flight”: Bosnien, 12. April 1993 bis 20. Dezember 1995
Operation “Able Sentry”: Serbien-Mazedonien, ab 5. Juli 1994
Operation “Nomad Edeavor”: Taszar, Ungarn, ab März 1996
Operation “Nomad Vigil”: Albanien, 1. Juli 1995 bis 5. November 1996
Operation “Quick Lift”: Kroatien, Juli 1995
Operation “Deliberate Force”: Republika Srpska, 29. August 1995 bis 21. September 1995
Operation “Joint Forge”: ab 20. Juni 1998
Operation “Joint Guard”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, 20. Juni 1998
Operation “Joint Edeavor”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, Dezember 1995 bis Dezember 1996
Operation “Determined Effort”: Bosnien, Juli 1995 bis Dezember 1995
Operation “Determined Falcon”: Kosovo/Albanien, 15. Juni 1998 bis 16. Juni 1998
Operation “Eagle Eye”: Kosovo, 16. Oktober 1998 bis 24. März 1999
Operation “Sustain Hope/Allied Harbour”: Kosovo, ab 5. April 1999
Operation “Shining Hope”: Kosovo, ab 5. April 1999
Operation “Cobalt Flash”: Kosovo, ab 23. März 1999
Operation “Determined Force”: Kosovo, 8. Oktober 1998 bis 23. März 1999

A lady walked into a drug store and told the pharmacist she needed some cyanide.

The pharmacist asked, “Why in the world do you need cyanide?”

The lady then explained she needed it to poison her husband.

The pharmacist’s eyes got big and he said, “Lord have mercy, I can’t
give you cyanide to kill your husband!

That’s against the law! I’ll lose my license… They’ll throw both of
us in jail and all kinds of bad things will happen! Absolutely not! You can NOT have any cyanide!”

Then the lady reached into her purse and pulled out a picture of her
husband having dinner in a restaurant with pharmacist’s wife.

The pharmacist looked at the picture and replied, “Well, now… You
didn’t tell me you had a prescription”.

Vivek Pradhan wasn’t a happy man. Even the plush comfort of the First Class air-conditioned compartment of the Shatabdi express couldn’t cool his frayed nerves. He was the Project Manager and still not entitled to air travel. It was not the prestige he sought; he had tried to reason with the admin guy, it was the savings in time. A PM had so many things to do! He opened his case and took out the laptop, determined to put the time to some good use.

“Are you from the software industry sir,” the man beside him was staring appreciatively at the laptop. Vivek glanced briefly and mumbled in affirmation, handling the laptop now with exaggerated care and importance as if it were an expensive car. “You people have brought so much advancement to the country sir. Today everything is getting computerized.”

“Thanks,” smiled Vivek, turning around to give the man a look. He always found it difficult to resist appreciation. The man was young and stocky like a sportsman. He looked simple and strangely out of place in that little lap of luxury like a small town boy in a prep school. He probably was a Railway sportsman making the most of his free traveling pass. “You people always amaze me,” the man continued, “You sit in an office and write something on a computer and it does so many big things outside.”

Vivek smiled deprecatingly. Naivety demanded reasoning not anger. “It is not as simple as that my friend. It is not just a question of writing a few lines. There is a lot of process that goes behind it.” For a moment he was tempted to explain the entire Software Development Lifecycle but restrained himself to a Single statement. “It is complex, very complex.”

“It has to be. No wonder you people are so highly paid,” came the reply. This was not turning out as Vivek had thought. A hint of belligerence came into his so far affable, persuasive tone. “Everyone just sees the money. No one sees the amount of hard work we have to put in.” “Hard work!” “Indians have such a narrow concept of hard work. Just because we sit in an air-conditioned office doesn’t mean our brows don’t sweat. You exercise the muscle; we exercise the mind and believe me that is no less taxing.”

He had the man where he wanted him and it was time to drive home the point. “Let me give you an example. Take this train. The entire railway reservation system is computerized. You can book a train ticket between any two stations from any of the hundreds of computerized booking centers across the country. Thousands of transactions, accessing a single database at a given time; concurrency, data integrity, locking, data security. Do you understand the complexity in designing and coding such a system?”

The man was stuck with amazement, like a child at a planetarium. This was something big and beyond his imagination. “You design and code such things.” “I used to,” Vivek paused for effect, “But now I am the Project manager,” “Oh!” sighed the man, as if the storm had passed over, “so your life is easy now.” It was like being told the fire was better than the frying pan. The man had to be given a feel of the heat.
“Oh come on, does life ever get easy as you go up the ladder. Responsibility only brings more work. Design and coding! That is the easier part. Now I don’t do it, but I am responsible for it and believe me, that is far more stressful. My job is to get the work done in time and with the highest quality. And to tell you about the pressures! There is the customer at one end always changing his requirements, the user wanting something else and your boss always expecting you to have finished it yesterday.” Vivek paused in his diatribe, his belligerence fading with self-realization. What he had said was not merely the Outburst of a wronged man, it was the truth. And one need not get Angry while defending the truth. “My friend,” he concluded triumphantly, “you don’t know what it is to be in the line of fire.” The man sat back in his chair, his eyes closed as if in realization. When he spoke after sometime, it was with a calm certainty that surprised Vivek.

“I know sir, I know what it is to be in the line of fire,” He was staring blankly as if no passenger, no train existed, just a vast expanse of time. “There were 30 of us when we were ordered to capture Point 4875 in the cover of the night. The enemy was firing from the top. There was no knowing where the next bullet was going to come from and for whom. In the morning when we finally hoisted the tricolor at the top only 4 of us were alive.”

You are a…”

“I am Subedar Sushant from the 13 J&K Rifles on duty at Peak 4875 in Kargil. They tell me I have completed my term and can opt for a land assignment. But tell me sir, can one give up duty just because it makes life easier. On the dawn of that capture one of my colleagues lay injured in the snow, open to enemy fire while we were hiding behind a bunker. It was my job to go and fetch that soldier to safety.
But my captain refused me permission and went ahead himself. He said that the first pledge he had taken as a Gentleman Cadet was to put the safety and welfare of the nation foremost followed by the safety and welfare of the men he commanded. His personal safety came last, always and every time. He was killed as he shielded that soldier into the bunker. Every morning now as I stand guard I can see him taking all those bullets, which were actually meant for me. I know sir; I know what it is to be in the line of fire.”

Vivek looked at him in disbelief not sure of his reply. Abruptly he switched off the laptop. It seemed trivial, even insulting to edit a word document in the presence of a man for whom valor and duty was a
daily part of life; a valor and sense of duty which he had so far attributed only to epical heroes. The train slowed down as it pulled into the station and Subedar Sushant picked up his bags to alight.
“It was nice meeting you sir.”

Vivek fumbled with the handshake. This was the hand that had climbed mountains, pressed the trigger and hoisted the tricolor. Suddenly, as if by impulse he stood at attention and his right hand went up in an impromptu salute. It was the least he felt he could do for the country.

PS: The incident he narrates during the capture of Peak 4875 is a true life incident during the Kargil war. Captain Batra Sacrificed his life while trying to save one of the men he commanded, as victory was within sight. For this and his various other acts of bravery he was warded the Param Vir Chakra – the nation’s highest military award. Live humbly, there are great people around us, let us learn!

Picture Above : This is 130 mm gun battery. This was used during Kargil war. The sound of the blast is ear defeaning. Range is 28-30 KMS.